The Mark Lund Growth Report for Monday, November 16, 2015

Presented by | November 16, 2015

RETAIL PURCHASES UP JUST 0.1% IN OCTOBER
The tiny increase was actually an improvement, as retail sales were flat in both August and September. Gas station sales tailed off 0.9% in October, car sales 0.5%; offsetting those declines, online retail purchases were up 1.4% last month, spending at restaurants and bars up 0.5%. The Commerce Department’s latest report notwithstanding, the National Retail Federation projects holiday season retail sales to rise 3.7% this year to $630.5 billion.1

HOUSEHOLDS THINK POSITIVE
Economists polled by Bloomberg expected the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to rise 2.0 points to 92.0. It surpassed that forecast, reaching 93.1 thanks in large part to consumer expectations of low inflation and larger wage gains in 2016. Twelve months ago, the index was at 88.8.2

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DECREASES AGAIN
The Labor Department’s barometer of wholesale inflation declined 0.4% in October. September saw the index fall 0.5%. Through October, the PPI was down 1.6% year-over-year, even though wholesale gasoline prices rose 3.8% last month. Core producer prices have risen but 0.1% in 12 months.1,3

STOCKS RETREAT ON SOFT DATA, LOW OIL PRICES
Negative wholesale inflation, tepid retail sales and light sweet crude ending the week at $40.74 on the NYMEX, its lowest close since August 26 – that was enough to snap Wall Street’s winning streak. The S&P 500 lost 3.63% on the week to fall to 2,023.04 Friday. The Dow (-3.71%) and Nasdaq (-4.26%) made similar descents, wrapping up the week at respective closes of 17,245.24 and 4,927.88.4,5

THIS WEEK: Monday offers quarterly results from Agilent Technologies and Dillard’s. Tuesday, October’s CPI and a report on October industrial output complement earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Jack-in-the-Box, La-Z-Boy, TJX and Walmart. Minutes from the October Federal Reserve policy meeting appear on Wednesday, along with October’s housing starts report and earnings from Aramark, Keurig Green Mountain, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, Staples, Target, The Children’s Place and Weibo. Thursday brings the Conference Board’s latest leading indicator index, a new initial claims report and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Best Buy, Fresh Market, Gap, Intuit, J.M. Smucker, Kirkland’s, Ross, Stein Mart and Williams-Sonoma. Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker report Q3 results on Friday.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -3.24 -2.31 +10.82 +6.12
NASDAQ +4.05 +5.29 +19.14 +12.40
S&P 500 -1.74 -0.80 +13.74 +6.40
REAL YIELD 11/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.76% 0.47% 0.71% 2.14%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/13/156,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety.”

– Isaac Asimov

WEEKLY TIP

Are your investment allocations still in agreement with your investing goals? An annual review can help you find that out, and determine whether it is necessary to make changes.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

5 letters have I, I start in E and end in Y. Take away my first, third and last letter and the 2 letters left will sound the same as when you started with me. I am a 5-letter word; what word am I?

Last week’s riddle:
When you shop for clothes, XL is always larger than L…but clothing sizes aside, in what numerical context is L larger than XL?

Last week’s answer:
In Roman numerals. The Roman numeral L = 50. However, X placed before L means “ten less” than L, so the Roman numeral XL = 40.

Citations.
1 – nbcnews.com/business/economy/online-purchases-eating-out-help-october-retail-sales-edge-higher-n462846 [11/13/15]
2 – 247wallst.com/economy/2015/11/13/consumer-sentiment-climbs-again/ [11/13/15]
3 – usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/13/us-producer-prices-drop-in-latest-sign-of-tame-inflation [11/13/15]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/13/15]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-settles-lower-down-8-on-week-2015-11-13 [11/13/15]
6 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/13/15]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/13/15]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing 401k consulting for small businesses and financial Advisor services for professional athletes and individuals. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.The

Category: Blog, The Mark Lund Growth Report's

About the Author ()

Mark K. Lund is the author of The Effective Investor, founder, and CEO of Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc., an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm. He has written articles for or been quoted in: The Wall Street Journal, The Salt Lake Tribune, The Enterprise Newspaper, The Utah Business Connect Magazine, and Newsmax.com, just to name a few. Mark publishes two newsletters called, “The Mark Lund Growth Report” and “Mark Lund on Money.” Mark regularly provides CE (continuing education) courses for CPA’s. You may also have seen him on KUTV channel 2, or as a guest speaker at a local association or business. Mark’s focus is to help people with their investments and retirement plans. In Mark’s spare time he enjoys riding his dirt bike, playing with his kids, fishing, reading, writing, and going on walks with his best friend, his wife. To learn more about Mark please visit his firms website at www.StonecreekWealthAdvisors.com

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