The Mark Lund Growth Report, for Monday, November 30, 2015

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN
November saw the Conference Board consumer confidence index plummet. It dropped 8.7 points from its revised October mark of 99.1 to 90.4; economists polled by Briefing.com assumed it would rise slightly to 99.6. The CB attributed November’s poor reading (the lowest since September 2014) to declining expectations of job and wage growth in the next few months. November’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also declined to 91.3 from its preliminary reading of 93.1.1,2

CONSUMER SPENDING NUDGES UP
Personal spending improved just 0.1% in October, but the Commerce Department’s latest report also revealed that personal incomes rose by 0.4% last month. In news related to consumer spending, October saw a 3.0% gain in capital goods orders (0.5% minus transportation orders), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis put Q3 GDP at 2.1% in its second estimate, 0.6% higher than in its first.1

A LEAP FOR NEW HOME SALES IN OCTOBER
New home buying increased 10.7% last month according to the Census Bureau, resulting in a 4.9% annualized gain. Resales declined 3.4% in October, the National Association of Realtors noted, citing declining inventory as a major factor.3

AN ADVANCE FOR THE BIG THREE
The Nasdaq led the way among the major U.S. equity indices last week, rising 1.06% to a November 27 close of 5,127.53. Next was the Dow, gaining 0.37% in the shortened trading week to settle at 17,798.49 Friday. The S&P 500 eked out an 0.04% advance from Monday through Friday to close the week at 2,090.11.4

THIS WEEK: NAR’s October pending home sales index appears Monday. Tuesday sees the release of the November ISM manufacturing PMI and Q3 earnings from Bob Evans. Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks on the outlook for the economy in Washington, D.C.; the Fed releases a new Beige Book, a new ADP employment change report comes out, and Wall Street also considers earnings from Aeropostale and American Eagle Outfitters. Thursday, Janet Yellen testifies on the economic outlook in the Senate; October’s Challenger job-cut report, November’s ISM services PMI, a new initial claims report and earnings from Barnes & Noble, Dollar General, Express, Five Below, Kroger, Land’s End, Sears Holdings and Toro also arrive. The Labor Department’s November jobs report arrives Friday, plus earnings from Big Lots! and Hovnanian.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -0.14 -0.17 +12.09 +6.34
NASDAQ +8.27 +7.01 +20.46 +12.90
S&P 500 +1.52 +1.09 +15.15 +6.62
REAL YIELD 11/27 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.62% 0.39% 0.75% 2.04%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/27/155,6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do.”

– Epictetus

WEEKLY TIP

Taking money out of your retirement account with the goal of using it to pay for your child’s college expenses is a bad idea. Student loans do burden a young adult, but you could end up delaying your retirement because of this move.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

In what year did Christmas and New Year’s Day happen in the same year?

Last week’s riddle:
You cannot see me. I am inside everyone. I only emerge in anger. The shorter I am, the hotter I am. What am I?

Last week’s answer:
A temper.

Citations.
1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/11/23-27 [11/27/15]
2 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/11/24/consumer-confidence-job-market-economy/76306492/ [11/24/15]
3 – zacks.com/stock/news/199216/new-home-sales-rebound-in-october-housing-back-on-track [11/26/15]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/27/15]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F31%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F26%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F26%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/27/15]
7 – finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI&a=10&b=26&c=2010&d=10&e=26&f=2010&g=d
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/27/15]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/27/15]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing 401k consulting for small businesses and financial Advisor services for professional athletes and individuals. Stonecreek is located in Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.

Category: Blog, Growth Report