Growth Report – December 10, 2018

HIRING PACE SLOWS
In November, U.S. employers added a net 155,000 hires to their payrolls. That compares with a (revised) gain of 237,000 recorded by the federal government for October. The Department of Labor’s latest jobs report showed the main unemployment rate holding steady at just 3.7%, and the U-6 rate (unemployed and underemployed) rising 0.2% to 7.6%. Annualized wage growth was at 3.1%. Will this middling job growth make the Federal Reserve think twice about a year-end rate move? Perhaps not: Friday, the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool put the chances of a 0.25% December rate hike at 76.6%.1

SERVICE & FACTORY SECTORS CONTINUE TO HUM
Early each month, investors and economists alike look at the Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indices tracking expansion and contraction in manufacturing and service industries. The latest data is quite good. ISM’s November service sector PMI improved to 60.7, up 0.4 points from October; its factory sector PMI also rose, ascending 1.6 points on the month to an impressive 59.3.2

OPEC ADDRESSES IMBALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY, OIL DEMAND
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other key foreign producers agreed on Friday to cut production by a total of 1.2 million barrels per day for at least six months. That brought some relief to stateside oil investors, who watched WTI crude jump about 5% Friday; the commodity ended the week at $52.34 on the NYMEX.3,4

FOUR DAYS OF UPS AND DOWNS
Volatility reigned on Wall Street during an abbreviated market week. (U.S. financial markets were closed Wednesday in observance of the national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush.) Institutional investors found plenty of motivation to sell, partly due to a dimming outlook for a truce in the U.S.-China trade war. During the worst week for shares in nine months, the Dow Industrials fell 4.50% to 24,388.95; the S&P 500, 4.60% to 2,633.08; the Nasdaq Composite, 4.93% to 6,969.25.5,6

T I P O F T H E W E E K

Is your home a showcase for fine art, collectibles, or antiques? If your collection has significant value, it may not be adequately insured by a standard homeowner policy. You may want to consider specialized property coverage.

THIS WEEK
Casey’s General Stores announces quarterly results on Monday. | A new Producer Price Index arrives Tuesday, plus earnings from American Eagle Outfitters and DSW. | On Wednesday, investors will consider the November Consumer Price Index. | Thursday offers earnings from Adobe, Costco, and Fred’s, along with the Department of Labor’s latest initial claims numbers. | Federal government reports on November retail sales and industrial output appear Friday.

Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K

“Make up your mind to act decidedly and take the consequences. No good is ever done in this world by hesitation.”
THOMAS HENRY HUXLEY

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

-1.34

0.73

10.45

17.30

NASDAQ

0.95

2.30

14.31

34.34

S&P 500

1.52

-0.15

9.17

18.94

REAL YIELD

12/7 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.96

0.50

0.77

2.47

Sources: ft.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/7/187,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E

Take a word with four letters. Take away one, and what remains will be better – better than zero, anyway. What word is this?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: It can be open, closed, empty, or full. Sometimes you see one, sometimes two. It can be bare, but never a bear. What is it?
ANSWER: A hand.

CITATIONS:
1 – tinyurl.com/y93zzeuv [12/7/18]
2 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [12/6/18]
3 – cnn.com/2018/12/07/investing/opec-oil-prices/index.html [12/7/18]
4 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [12/7/18]
5 – markets.ft.com/data/world [12/7/18]
6 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/asia-signals-mixed-start-for-stocks-yields-drop-markets-wrap [12/7/18]
7 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F7%2F17&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F6%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/7/18]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/7/18]
10 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/7/18]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as a Wealth Advisor, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. a fiduciary, independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing investment and retirement planning for individuals and 401k consulting for small businesses. Cities served but not limited to are: Park City, Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.

Category: Blog, The Mark Lund Growth Report's

About the Author ()

Mark K. Lund is the author of The Effective Investor, a #1 Best Seller, and founder of Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. an independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisory firm. He has provided articles for or been quoted in: The Wall Street Journal, The Salt Lake Tribune, The Enterprise Newspaper, The Utah Business Connect Magazine, US News & World Report, and Newsmax.com, just to name a few.  Mark publishes two newsletters called, “The Mark Lund Growth Report” and “Mark Lund on Money.”  Mark provides CPE (continuing professional education) courses for CPAs.  You may also have seen him on KUTV Channel 2, or as a guest speaker at a local association or business. Mark provides investment and retirement planning services for individuals and 401(k) consulting for small businesses. In his book, The Effective Investor, Mark exposes the false narrative magazines, media, big Wall Street firms, and most advisors want you to believe. The good news is that Mark will show you that you don’t need their speculative ways of investing in order to be a successful investor. Get a free copy when you schedule your initial consultation.

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