Growth Report – Monday, February 19, 2018

INFLATION SUDDENLY INTENSIFIES
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, its greatest month-over-month advance since January 2017. Core inflation (minus food and energy prices) increased 0.3%, marking the largest monthly gain in almost 13 years.1

RETAIL SALES PACE SLOWS
Contradicting perceptions that the economy might be overheating, retail purchases fell 0.3% in January. Minus car buying, retail sales would have been unchanged for a second straight month, as a Department of Commerce revision rendered the previously announced December gain flat.2

DEVELOPERS BUILT MORE IN JANUARY
Groundbreaking increased 9.7% last month, according to a Census Bureau report. The first month of the year also brought a 7.4% rise in building permits.3

TAILWINDS RETURN TO WALL STREET
In the wake of the correction, the major indices rebounded nicely last week. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, rising 5.31% to a Friday settlement of 7,239.47. Bulls also sent the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 much higher: the Dow gained 4.25% on the week to 25,219.38, while the S&P rose 4.30% to 2,732.22. The CBOE VIX volatility index is certainly on a wild ride: it fell 33.52% across last week to 19.32, but remained up 75.00% YTD. In the commodities sector, oil staged a notable comeback, rallying 4.2% in five days to finish the week at $61.68 on the NYMEX.4,5

THIS WEEK: Monday is Presidents Day: U.S. financial markets are closed. The earnings roll call for Tuesday includes results from Cardtronics, Cracker Barrel, Domino’s Pizza, Duke Energy, Fluor, Fresh Del Monte Produce, Home Depot, HSBC, Medtronic, Noble Energy, Public Storage, Sempra Energy, Transocean, and Walmart. On Wednesday, Wall Street considers January existing home sales, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting, and earnings from Avis Budget Group, Cheesecake Factory, Dish Network, Garmin, Kaiser Aluminum, Owens Corning, Pandora Media, Roku, Sunoco, and Wendy’s. A new initial jobless claims report arrives on Thursday, plus earnings news from Bloomin’ Brands, Chesapeake Energy, Edison International, First Solar, GoDaddy, Herbalife, Hewlett-Packard, Hormel, Intuit, Planet Fitness, Wayfair, and Wingstop. Huntsman and KBR present earnings Friday.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +2.02 +22.31 +16.07 +10.42
NASDAQ +4.87 +24.50 +25.36 +21.18
S&P 500 +2.19 +16.40 +15.96 +10.24
REAL YIELD 2/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.78% 0.43% -0.53% 1.48%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 2/16/184,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear – not absence of fear.”

– Mark Twain

WEEKLY TIP

If at all possible, avoid taking a loan from your workplace retirement plan. If you withdraw funds from it before age 59½, you will usually incur a penalty, and you will be drawing down money that should be left to grow and compound in a tax-favored account.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

You can crack it, share it, tell it, make it, or play it. What is it? Can you name it?

Last week’s riddle:
Cheryl was driving a black car. Its lights were off, and there was no moonlight. A cat walked into the middle of the road. How did she know to stop?

Last week’s answer:
She was driving in the daylight.

Citations.
1 – thestreet.com/story/14488773/1/bond-yields-surge-as-investors-anticipate-rate-hikes-following-inflation-uptick.html [2/14/18]
2 – marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-slump-in-january—and-december-doesnt-look-so-good-now-either-2018-02-14/ [2/16/18]
3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [2/16/18]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [2/16/18]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-benchmark-aims-for-3-day-win-streak-ahead-of-rig-data-2018-02-16 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/16/18]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/16/18]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/16/18]

This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., for Mark Lund, Mark is known as a Wealth Advisor, The 401k Advisor, Investor Coach, The Financial Advisor, The Financial Planner and author of The Effective Investor. Mark offers investment advisory services through Stonecreek Wealth Advisors, Inc. a fiduciary, independent, fee-only, Registered Investment Advisor firm providing investment and retirement planning for individuals and 401k consulting for small businesses. Cities served but not limited to are: Park City, Salt Lake City, Murray City, West Jordan City, Sandy City, Draper City, South Jordan City, Provo City, Orem City, Lehi City, Highland City, Alpine City, and American Fork City in Utah.

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